Multi-scale models of zoonotic pathogen emergence risk

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Multi-scale models of zoonotic pathogen emergence risk

 08 - 12 Jul 2024

Edinburgh Futures Institute, Lauriston Place, Edinburgh


Scientific Organisers

  • Giulia Belluccini, Los Alamos National Laboratory
  • Stephen Davis, RMIT University
  • Nick Hengartner, Los Alamos National Laboratory
  • Grant Lythe, University of Leeds
  • Carmen Molina-Paris, Los Alamos National Laboratory
  • Ruy Ribeiro, Los Alamos National Laboratory
  • Bevelynn Williams, University of Leeds


Emerging pathogens are of great public health concern. Most human endemic or emerging infectious diseases that have led to epidemics or pandemics were caused by pathogens shared with wild or domestic animals. Species-jump events of a novel pathogen from sylvatic animal reservoirs to humans occur with regularity. The questions driving this workshop are: 1) can we predict when the next zoonotic emergence event will take place, so that we can best be prepared, and 2) what are the best interventions to prevent such an event.

The focussed workshop will be on Monday 8 to Wednesday 10 July and the second part of the event (Research in Groups) will take place on Thursday 11 and Friday 12 July.


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09.30 – 09.50 Registration and refreshments
09.50 – 10.00 Welcome and housekeeping
10.00 – 10.30 Simon Johnstone-Robertson, RMIT University Melbourne (online) Quantifying the impact of immature tick co-aggregation on tick-borne pathogen spread
10.30 – 11.00 Stephen Davis, RMIT University Melbourne (online) Transmission graphs and next-generation matrices for complex tick-borne disease systems
11.00 – 11.30 Refreshments
11.30 – 12.00 Jonty Carruthers, UK Health Security Agency Modelling telecoms data to understand human movement patterns
12.00 – 12.30 Y-Ling Chi, UK Health Security Agency An introduction to health economics and perspectives for understanding its contributions to pathogen emergence risk
12.30 – 13.30 Lunch
13.30 – 14.00 Samantha Lycett, Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh Pathogen phylodynamics, phylogeography and viral fitness in multi-host and multi-strain systems
14.00 – 14.30 Olivier Restif, University of Cambridge Modelling bat-virus dynamics for spillover prediction
14.30 – 15.00 Refreshments
15.00 – 15.30 Holly Gaff, Old Dominion University Understanding ticks and tick-borne diseases through agent-based modelling
15.30 – 16.00 Konstantin Blyuss, University of Sussex Modelling the interactions between pathogens and the immune system
16.30 – 17.30 Welcome reception, hosted at EFI
09.30 – 10.00 John Barr, University of Leeds
10.00 – 10.30 Catherine Beauchemin, RIKEN Key challenges in predicting virus reassortment in vitro and a few other things
10.30 - 11.00 Refreshments
11.00 – 11.30 Maria Diuk-Wasser, Columbia University Socio-ecological drivers for emergence and opportunities for control of tick-borne diseases in North America
11.30 – 12.00 Ben Adams, University of Bath Mathematical models for the community ecology of tick-borne microbes
12.00 – 13.00 Lunch
13.00 – 13.30 Zati Vatansever & Baris Yildiz, Kafkas University CCHFV vector ecology
13.30 – 14.00 Giulia Belluccini, Los Alamos National Laboratory Co-feeding, co-infection, co-transmission dynamics of tick-borne viruses
14.00 – 14.30 Refreshments
14.30 – 15.00 Bevelynn Williams, University of Leeds Multi-scale modelling of inhalational anthrax
15.00 – 15.30 Ruy Ribeiro, Los Alamos National Laboratory A discussion on estimation of effective reproduction number for an emerging infection
15.30 – 16.00 Grant Lythe, University of Leeds Bursting and budding
19.00 Workshop Dinner, hosted at Blonde Restaurant 75 St. Leonard’s Street, Edinburgh EH8 7QR
09.30 – 10.00 Francisco Ruiz-Fons, Spanish Scientific Research Council - Spanish Game & Wildlife Research Institute Pathogen surveillance in wild vertebrates as a basis for risk modelling of emerging vector-borne diseases
10.00 – 10.30 Xander O’Neill & Andy White, Heriot-Watt University Mathematical models of tick-borne infection: the impact of host density and tick demography
10.30 – 11.00 Refreshments
11.00 – 11.30 Carmen Molina-Paris, Los Alamos National Laboratory Tick-borne segmented RNA viruses: mathematical challenges and opportunities
11.30 – 12.00 Nick Hengartner & Carmen Molina-Paris, Los Alamos National Laboratory Discussion and concluding remarks
12.00 Lunch and end of workshop