The Mathematics of Climate Tipping Points and their Impacts

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The Mathematics of Climate Tipping Points and their Impacts

 24 - 28 Mar 2025

ICMS, Bayes Centre, Edinburgh

Scientific Organisers

  • Peter Ashwin , University of Exeter
  • Niklas Boers , Technische Universität München
  • Anna von der Heydt , Utrecht University
  • Valerio Lucarini , University of Leicester

About:

This workshop will be part of the ICMS Mathematics for Humanity initiative. The workshop will provide a forum for the development of mathematical thinking applied to climate tipping points and their possible impacts. We will invite a variety of experts across the Mathematical Sciences research spectrum to deliver an assessment of the mechanisms and risks of tipping events in the Earth’s climate and ecosystems under anthropogenic forcing scenarios. This will help to understand the associated impacts, including implications for mitigation and adaptation. The proposed workshop aims to give a forum for discussion of state-of-the art developments in and applications of mathematical sciences to tipping-aware risk assessments as well as adaptation and mitigation strategies. It also aims to bring open questions of relevance to the attention of researchers in the mathematical sciences.  

Participation

The application is closed now.  All applications will then be reviewed by the scientific organisers and the aim is to advise participants of their decisions in a month after the closing date. 

There will be a linked three-day training course the week before the workshop: https://www.icms.org.uk/IntroductionClimateTippingPoints 

There is a registration fee required to settle for each successful applicant: £250 for both workshop and training; £150 for workshop only.

Potential participants with special needs or those who must fulfil strict visa requirements are encouraged to apply as early as possible and to contact ICMS immediately upon submission. We will review your request on a case by case basis. 

Programme

MONDAY 24 MARCH 2025
Registration and Refreshments
Welcome and Housekeeping
Chris KRT Jones, George Mason University/UNC- Chapel Hill Noise induced transitions in a carbon cycle model
Refreshments
Gabriele Hegerl, University of Edinburgh The link between extreme events and tipping points
Iacopo P. Longo, Imperial College London Nonautonomous modelling in energy balance models of climate. Limitations of averaging and climate sensitivity
Lunch
Manuel Santos Gutierrez, Weizmann Institute of Science TBC Non-normality in dynamical systems: sensitivity and response
Isobel Parry, University of Exeter An early warning indicator for tipping points in strongly forced systems
Ulrike Feudel, University of Oldenburg Rate-dependent critical phenomena in ecosystems
Poster session/ welcome reception
Informal Dinner at ICMS
TUESDAY 25 MARCH 2025
Sebastian Wieczorek, University College Cork Rate-induced tipping by crossing elusive quasithresholds: atmospheric warming and zombie fires
Katherine Slyman, Boston College Tipping mechanisms in a carbon cycle model
Refreshments
Johannes Lohmann, University of Copenhagen Observables for early-warning signals of tipping points
Tobias Grafke, Warwick Mathematics Institute Transition path sampling and large deviations for climate tipping points
Lunch
Swinda Falkena, Utrecht University Mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6
Ruth Chapman, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen Quantifying tipping behavior: geometric early warnings and quasipotentials for a box model of AMOC
Refreshments
David Stainforth, London School of Economics Ensemble design to support societal transformation
Sandy Trust, Baillie Gifford Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature
Panel discussion: Handling climate risk
Public Lecture: Peter Ditlevsen, University of Copenhagen A Tipping Point in the Climate: Possible Collapse of the Atlantic Current
Self-organised dinner
WEDNESDAY 26 MARCH 2025
Sergei Petrovskii, University of Leicester Regime shifts, tipping points and long transients in models of coupled climate-biota dynamics
Chris Budd, University of Bath Dynamic tipping near resonance in the Stommel model of the MAOC
Refreshments
Nico Wunderling, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Emulating tipping elements in the Earth system: Towards a comprehensive tipping risk assessment
Andreas Morr, Technical University Munich Internal noise interference to warnings of tipping points in generic multi-dimensional dynamical system
Packed Lunch
Social activity and self-organised dinner
THURSDAY 27 MARCH 2025
Paul Ritchie, University of Exeter The role of coupling in interacting tipping elements
Emmanuel Fleurentin, George Mason University Understanding tipping phenomena via the Maslov index
Refreshments
Beatrice Pelloni, Charlie Egan, Heriot-Watt University, Georg August Universität Göttingen Optimal transport techniques in modelling of atmospheric flows
Frank Kwasniok, University of Exeter Data-driven anticipation and prediction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse using non-autonomous spatio-temporal dynamical modelling
Lunch
Susanne Ditlevsen, University of Copenhagen Extraction of a common signal from several time series with application to estimation of tipping times in the climate
Hassan Alkhayuon, University College Cork Heat waves and Zombie fires: rate-induced phase-tipping in fast-slow nonautonomous systems
Refreshments
Sebastian Bathiany (video), Technical University of Munich Do plants know about dynamical systems theory?
Jean-Francois Mercure (video), University of Exeter Positive tipping points as effective climate policy tools
Sacha Sinet, Utrecht University Safe Tipping Point Overshoots in Interacting Systems
Self-organised dinner
FRIDAY 28 MARCH 2025
Nikki Vercauteren, University of Cologne Stochastic parameterization of turbulence: why and how?
Joseph Clarke, University of Exeter Spatial Early Warning Signals for Rapidly Forced Systems
Refreshments
Rachel Kuske, Georgia Tech Identifying critical scales for tipping in noisy, nearly non-smooth Stommel-type models
Packed Lunch/Depart