Mathematical modelling and COVID-19: How can modelling inform a response to the current COVID-19 resurgence?

5-6 October 2020

Organisers: Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths (UCL/Oxford), Louise Dyson and Ed Hill (Warwick) and William Waites (Edinburgh)

This workshop aims to bring together people working on modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK to discuss how modelling has and continues to inform policy decision making around this epidemic. It will showcase ongoing  modelling efforts to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical interventions as well as potential vaccination strategies from the leading modelling groups in the UK, drawing on knowledge from published and in the process of publication work. We will also have designated discussions and brain-storming sessions to put the ongoing modelling efforts in the context of what we know and what we still need to untangle about this epidemic as we are faced with an emerging resurgence of the virus. The outcome of the workshop will be a white-paper style report that collates the to-date modelling efforts with recommendations for the next steps.

09/10/20 Update - permission is being sought from speakers to make talks available. Where permission is received links will be posted from this webpage.

For applicants who are unsuccessful in securing a space, we will aim to share the meeting output subsequently.


The playlist of recordings for this event is available here.


Monday 5th Oct 10-4pm

09.25-09.30 Welcome by Paul Glendinning, Introduction by Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths

Chair: Louise Dyson (Warwick)

09.30-10.00 Matt Keeling, Warwick University
10.00-10.30 Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, UCL/Oxford University
10.30-10.50 Break
10.50-11.30 Graeme Ackland, Edinburgh University
11.30-12.00 Alain Goriely, Oxford University

12.00-13.00 Brain Storming discussion and key messages from the morning

13.00-13.30 lunch break (meeting will be configured so that informal discussion can continue over lunch)

Chair: William Waites (Edinburgh)

13.30-14.00 Luca Feretti, Oxford University
14.00-14.30 Chris Budd, Bath University/V-KEMS

A recording of this talk is available here.

14.30-14.45 Break
14.45-15.15 Deirdre Hollingsworth, Oxford University
15.15-15.45 Mark Birkin, Leeds University, Rory Greig, Improbable

A recording of this talk is available here

15.45-16.30 Brainstorming session and summary for the day


Tuesday 6th October 10-4pm

Chair: Ed Hill (Warwick)

09.30-10.00 Ellen Brookes-Pollock, Bristol University
10.00-10.30 Timothy Russell, LSHTM group
10.30-11.00 Edwin van Leeuwen, PHE modelling
11.00-11.20 Break
11.20-11.50  William Waites, Edinburgh University

A recording of this talk is available here. The slides are available here.

11.50-12.20  Sam Moore, Warwick University

12.20-13.20 brain storming discussion and key messages from the morning

13.20-14.00 lunch break (meeting will be configured so that informal discussion can continue over lunch)

Chair: Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths (UCL)

14.00-14.30 Neil Ferguson, Imperial College
14.30-15.00 Anotida Madzvamuse, James Ypere University of Sussex

A recording of this talk is available here.

15.00-15.15 Richard Haines, NHS Test and Trace


15.15-16.15 Brainstorming session including plans for write up and forming a working group  


Friday 9th October 10-11am

10.00-11.00 Working group paper planning 



This event is supported by the Virtual Forum for Knowledge Exchange in Mathematical Sciences (V-KEMS)