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Keynote
Abstracts | Non-Keynote
Abstracts | Poster Abstracts
Keynote
Speakers
Dr Willy Aspinall, Aspinall &
Associates, UK.
Dr Stuart Coles, Department of
Statistics, University of Padua, Italy.
Professor
Chuck Connor, Department of Geology, University of Southern Florida, USA.
Professor Peter Green, Department of Mathematics,
University of Bristol, UK.
Professor Herbert
Huppert, Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge UK.
Dr Olivier Jacquet, COLENCO Power Engineering,
Baden, Switzerland.
Dr Heidy Mader, Department of
Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK.
Dr
Oleg Melnik, Institute of Mechanics, Moscow State University, Russia.
Professor Guy Nason, Department of Mathematics,
University of Bristol, UK.
Dr Juergen Neuberg,
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Leeds, UK.
Professor Chris Newhall, Volcano Disaster Assistance Team, US
Geological Survey.
Dr Leonard Smith, Centre for
the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics, UK.
Professor Steve Sparks, Department of Earth Sciences, University
of Bristol, UK.
Dr Gordon Woo, Aspinall &
Associates, UK.
Professor Andy Woods, BP
Institute, University of Cambridge, UK.
Professor
Peter Young, Centre for Research on Environmental Systems and Statistics,
Lancaster University, UK.
Timetable
Talks
will take place in Lecture Theatre SM1 on the first floor of the Mathematics
Department. Poster sessions will be held in SM3 (a) and SM4 (b). Coffee will be
served in the foyers outside the lecture theatres and lunch is available in the
university refectory.
Monday (Chair:
Mader)
| 08:45-09:30 |
Registration - outside Lecture Theatre
SM1 |
| 09:30-09:45 |
Welcome |
| 09:45-10:45 |
Sparks (Keynote)
Volcanic processes in the context of
statistical analysis |
| 10:45-11:15 |
Coffee |
| 11:15-12:15 |
Huppert (Keynote)
The fluid
mechanics and physics of volcanic eruptions |
| 12:15-13:45 |
Lunch |
|
(Chair: Woods) |
| 13:45-14:45 |
Aspinall (Keynote)
Probabilistic hazard and risk assessment for volcanic
eruptions, and the use of expert opinion |
| 14:45-15:45 |
Woo (Keynote)
The mathematics
of natural catastrophes |
| 15:45-16:15 |
Tea |
| 16:15-17:15 |
Green (Keynote)
Modern
statistical modelling in applied science |
| 17:15-18:00 |
Questions and Plenary
Discussion |
| 18:00-19:00 |
Drinks Reception (Royal Fort House)
|
Tuesday (Chair: Sparks)
| 09.00-09.45 |
Mader (Keynote)
Physical
processes in conduit flow |
| 09.45-10.30 |
Melnik (Keynote)
Transient
models of volcanic eruptions |
| 10:30-11:00 |
Coffee |
| 11:00-11.30 |
Gottsmann
Inversion of
gravity change and deformation time series: Probing sub-surface dynamics at
restless calderas for hazard assessment |
| 11.30-12.00 |
Esposti Ongaro
Coupled
Large Eddy Simulation and Lagrangian models for the description of the
multiphase flow dynamics of volcanic columns |
| 12:00-12:30 |
Hale
Modelling the growth
dynamics and stability of the lava dome on Soufriere Hills Volcano,
Montserrat |
| 12:30-14:00 |
Lunch |
|
(Chair: Huppert) |
| 14:00-15:00 |
Woods (Keynote)
Dynamics of
dilute ash flows |
| 15:00-15:30 |
Bonadonna
Probabilistic
modelling of tephra dispersion: hazard assessment of a multi-phase rhyolitic
eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand |
| 15:30-16:00 |
Plenary Questions and
Discussion |
| 16:00-17:30 |
Poster Session
1 + Tea |
Wednesday (Chair:
Young)
| 09:00-10:00 |
Smith (Keynote)
Coping without
chaos: the role of model inadequacy in geophysical simulation
models |
| 10:00-10:30 |
Hellweg
A warning bell?
Tornillo events at Galeras Volcano, Colombia |
| 10:30-11:00 |
Coffee |
| 11:00-12:00 |
Nason (Keynote)
Locally
stationary time series |
| 12:00-12:30 |
Jupp
A statistical model for
the timing of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions influenced by periodic
processes |
| 12:30-14:00 |
Lunch |
|
(Chair: Connor) |
| 14:00-15:00 |
Jaquet (Keynote)
Stochastic
forecasting: Precursor identification and scenario simulation using
geostatistical methods |
| 15:00-15:30 |
Marzocchi
Quantifying the
probabilities of eruptive events: an example from Mount
Vesuvius |
| 15:30-16:00 |
Plenary Questions and
Discussion |
| 16:00-16:30 |
Tea |
| 19:00-23:00 |
Workshop Dinner (Bristol Museums and Art
Gallery) |
Thursday (Chair:
Green)
| 09:00-10:00 |
Young (Keynote)
Data-based
mechanistic modelling and signal processing |
| 10:00-10:30 |
Matthews
Rainfall triggered dome collapses on Montserrat
|
| 10:30-11:00 |
Coffee |
| 11:00-12:00 |
Neuberg (Keynote)
Physical
processes in magma and their signature in seismic records |
| 12:00-12:30 |
Chastin
Statistical analysis
of seismic event rate as precursory signal to volcanic
eruptions |
| 12:30-14:00 |
Lunch |
|
(Chair: Coles) |
| 14:00-14:30 |
Newhall (Keynote)
WOVOdat, a
new tool for forecasting volcanic eruptions |
| 14:30-15:00 |
Kilburn
Precursors to
eruptions after extended repose intervals |
| 15:00-16:00 |
Plenary Questions and
Discussion |
| 16:00-17:30 |
Poster
Session 2 + Tea |
Friday (Chair: Neuberg)
| 09:00-10:00 |
Connor (Keynote)
Time and space in volcanology |
| 10:00-10:30 |
Wadge
Temporal and spatial
analysis of the eruptions of Nyamuragira |
| 10:30-11:00 |
Coffee |
| 11:00:12:00 |
Coles (Keynote)
Extreme value
theory and volcanoes |
| 12:00-12:30 |
Palacios
Statistical
analysis of the magnitude in volcanic tectonic events and its physical
interpretation |
| 12:30-13:00 |
Plenary Questions and Discussion - Close
of Business |
| 13:00-14:00 |
Lunch |
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Theme
The
general theme of the workshop is the promotion and dissemination of
contemporary statistical thinking and understanding as an aid to tackling
complex problems arising in volcanology. Areas of common interest between the
statistical and volcanological communities include:
- Numerical modelling of complex multiphase
flows.
- Analysis of large data streams
- Statistics of spatial and time series
data
- Pattern recognition.
- Analysis of uncertainties and
probabilistic risk assessment.
- Relating spatial and temporal data to
physical processes.
- Evaluation of expert judgements of field
data for forecasting, hazard evaluation and risk assessment.
A key objective of the workshop is for
researchers and students in the volcanological and statistical disciplines to
share knowledge and common interests and to develop future collaborations.
Format of Workshop
The workshop is organised around keynote lectures from leading
experts on particular themes covering state-of-the-art aspects of volcanology
and statistics. These themes will include:
- Risk analysis of volcanic eruptions and
assessment of expert opinion.
- Modelling of volcanic flow.
- Volcanic eruption precursors
- Modelling of extreme events.
- Wavelet techniques.
- Pattern recognition and spatial
statistics.
- Computational techniques for complex risk
models.
The keynote lectures will be interspersed
with plenary discussion sessions and focus-group sessions. Participants are
also encouraged to contribute to a poster session whose aim will be to enable
detailed discussion of contributors' own research problems, expertise and
experience.
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